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OkinSama's avatar

Overnight? Very probably not.. But few futurists are actually suggesting it'll happen "overnight" in the literal sense. They're often speaking comparatively, to progress/advancements of the past.

The thing about technological progress over time, is humans are rather poor at differentiating between linear progress, and so called "exponential progress".. Which while trickier to understand, tends to better describe the way some technologies enable greater advancements more rapidly than before, than thinking about progress in an easy linear way, and up until recently, there wasn't much functional difference in the pace of change between the two.

Someday, imo likely soon, with one of the next iterations of GPT or some other LLM.. Someone will figure out the right combination of prompting loop-back methods, or the right way to use a team of AIs with various API access, and they'll start automating portions of a business, then someone will use it to automate the management of an entire business. And if it generates more profit than human managers, we'll rapidly see entire industries begin automating using autonomous ai agents. Unless we change the profit motives, it's an obvious chain of events.. And all it takes is the right industries to automate, before it becomes a self-improving feedback loop. Again, that process doesn't happen overnight, but after looking back on a year's worth of progress, it'll be shocking how much happens.

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Valentin Baltadzhiev's avatar

You make some very interesting points! The whole idea that the data is going to be a bottleneck made me think. As you said, we need to either get bigger better datasets from somewhere, or figure out which datapoints are actually important for learning and focus on those. I wonder if that second problem might produce some solutions that spill over into our ability to teach things to humans as well.

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